Mineral Exports Down, But Real Earnings Up
Mineral exports down, but real earnings up
THE Australian Bureau of Resource and Agricultural Economics has knocked $A22 billion from its estimate of how much money commodity exports will earn the Australian economy in 2008-09. However, metals and minerals will still bring in 11% more this financial year.
ABARE said today it expected Australian commodity exports to come to $192 million for 2008-09, down from its $214 billion forecast made only three months ago.
After crunching the numbers, the research group found much of the decline would come from the mineral and energy export sectors, now expected to be worth $159 billion in export earnings, down from $180 billion forecast in September.
However, this still represents a rise of 37% in earnings on the previous financial year, good news especially for coal andiron ore miners who will reap the continued benefits of higher prices.
For all metals and other minerals, export earnings are forecast to be $78.3 billion, an increase of 11% over the 2007-08 financial year's earnings.
On an individual commodity level, ABARE said in thermal coal Australia's exports would increase this financial year by 7% over 2007-08 figures as capacity constraints in infrastructure ease over coming weeks.
Thermal coal contracts are expected to roughly halve after the end of this calendar year, but exports for 2008-09 are expected to increase by 117% to $18.1 billion as price falls in 2009 are cushioned by the weaker Australian dollar.
In steel-making raw materials like iron ore and coal, the picture was less rosy as the global financial crisis is expected to cause a major contraction in steel demand.
Despite this, ABARE said for the 2009 calendar year world steel production is set to grow by 1%, compared to 7% growth in 2007.
As a result, metallurgical coal and iron ore prices are both expected to fall sharply ' especially after rising so steeply in the first half of 2008.
However, again the news is not all grim and ABARE said for 2008-09, met coal and iron ore earnings would lift, with iron ore earnings expected to be 52% higher year on year to $31 billion, and met coal would increase by 150% to around $40 billion.
In gold, ABARE expects prices to fall somewhat as inflation fears ease, even as the metal remains a safe haven investment opportunity.
Australian gold production is expected to fall by 1% this financial year and growth in production from small to medium producers is also expected to be flat, however volumes of exports is expected to increase by 6% to 406 tonnes.
The value of these exports is expected to be 37% higher than last year, however, coming in at $14.9 billion.
Nickel exports will be worth less, reflecting the plummeting nickel price, and will come in 55% lower than the previous year or around $1.9 billion.
In copper, earnings will also drop as the spot price declines, and ABARE predicted they will fall by 25% to around $5 billion.
Finally, the picture for zinc remains shaky, with Australian production set to decline 9%, with earnings to also drop by 38% to $2.1 billion.
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